Truck transportation jobs rose slightly between April and May but recent downward revisions mean that the net number of jobs in that sector over the last four months has declined.
The figure released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that there were 1,609,200 seasonally adjusted jobs in the truck transportation sector in May.
That is up 600 jobs from what is now reported for April. But the April report was revised downward almost 3,000 jobs from an original number of 1,612,500.
March was also revised downward to 1,607,600 jobs, from 1,609,500 jobs reported last month. The BLS posts an initial estimate for employment totals, and that number is subject to revision for the following two months. It then becomes final until the annual revision that comes with the report released in February.
Given the revisions for March and April, and the big drop in truck transportation employment reported in February, the end result is that the figure for January — which is final, barring any revisions next year — now stands at 1,611,400 jobs. The latest report for May is 2,200 jobs less than that.
For an industry that has gone through a collapse in spot rates of about 21% since the beginning of the year to a recent trough (before a small rebound, as evidenced in the SONAR NTI.USA spot rate data series), a loss of just 2,200 jobs might look like a best-case scenario.
The increase between the revised April number and the May figure was on the mind of David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics.
“Job growth in the trucking sector is demonstrating its persistent resiliency with jobs continuing to increase month over month,” Spencer said in an email to FreightWaves. But looking at the longer trend of a decline since January, job growth is “continuing to defy expectations given the declining truckload rate environment. … The long-term trend points to more of a plateau for trucking employment.”
Matt Muenster, the chief economist at Breakthrough, looked at the larger picture of the transportation and warehousing segment, of which truck transportation is part. Total employment there was up 24,000, and he said in a statement to FreightWaves that there was a 90% confidence interval it would continue to be positive “through future adjustments.” That sector also includes public transit, which was up 11,800 jobs, and couriers, which rose 8,200 jobs.
Muenster said truck capacity is “holding up the market,” slowing down the drop in employment that might come from the weak market.
“The combination of resilient jobs numbers and hours changes in line with other industries supports the capacity narrative, particularly when considering the improvement in the fluidity of freight transportation in much of the country,” he said in an email to FreightWaves.
Among other highlights in the employment report:
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